Macroeconomics, the investment outlook and private markets in autumn 2023 and beyond

ICG’s Head of Economic and Investment Research Nick Brooks summarises his latest analysis

Private consumption and investment are likely to slow in the coming quarters, particularly in more cyclical and interest rate sensitive sectors.

This should, however, take pressure off wages and inflation and allow interest rates to fall again. In the meantime, investors will likely have to contend with slower growth, sticky core inflation and interest rates that have to stay higher for longer.

The most critical immediate question for investors is how severe the slowdown will be and what that might mean for company earnings and broader company fundamentals.

In our view, for most countries the slowdowns will be relatively moderate when compared to the deep downturns experienced during the 2008 global financial crisis. The critical difference between the 2008 crisis and the situation today is the strength of the global banking system.

Looking at data back to the 1920s, deep recessions have always been accompanied by systemic financial crises. And given the crucial role banks have historically played in creating credit, this shouldn’t come as a surprise.

My latest analysis published on the ICG website considers:

  • The truly dramatic changes of past years
  • What does this mean for the investment environment?
  • What are the biggest risks and opportunities?
  • What does this mean for private markets?
  • Where do we go from here?

While companies – private and public – may face a more difficult operating environment in the coming quarters, we think private market investors are particularly well positioned.

Please watch my video or read my report.